BERN - Fifty-five percent said they were definitely in favour and 14 percent somewhat in favour. Three quarters of respondents have already made up their minds, which is unusual this early. Support crosses every language region and every large party: 91 percent of Green supporters, 83 percent of Social Democrats, 80 percent of Green Liberals, 67 percent of the Centre, 59 percent of the Radical-Liberals and 53 percent of the Swiss People's Party. Women back it by 76 percent, men by 60. More than 80 percent accept the yes campaign's claims that fireworks pollute, distress animals and cause accidents. Safety is the argument that moves the most people. The no campaign's strongest card is the economic one. gfs.bern says the initiative enters the main campaign from a position of strength, with a lead of about 40 points. It also notes that popular initiatives often lose ground as voting day nears, and that Swiss citizens abroad are further behind in forming a view.
The other three questions are not settled
Funding the 13th monthly old-age pension with a 0.4 point rise in value-added tax is a statistical tie: 49 percent against, 46 percent in favour. Among 18- to 39-year-olds, 56 percent would vote no. Among those over 65, 55 percent would vote yes. Men reject it by 52 percent. Women split evenly at 47 percent. Social Democrats (60), Greens (58), the Centre (58) and Green Liberals (56) lean yes. Radical-Liberals reject it by 54 percent and People's Party supporters by 68. The most effective no argument is that the pension fund's gaps should be closed by structural reform, not by a tax. The most effective yes argument is that a VAT rise spreads the cost across generations. The government's case for that rise is the one Elisabeth Baume-Schneider has been making since the pension vote passed.
Relaxing war-materiel export rules leads with 49 percent, short of a majority, against 41 percent opposed and 10 percent undecided. It splits left from right. Radical-Liberal supporters are at 73 percent yes, the Centre at 65, Green Liberals at 60 and the People's Party at 57. Greens reject it by 63 percent and Social Democrats by 62. German-speaking Switzerland leans yes, French-speaking Switzerland no. Under-40s lean no. Support reaches 60 percent among those 65 and older. Men favour the change and women oppose it. On the fourth item, ending the tax disadvantage for many married couples, the same pollsters describe opinion as still unsettled. The Federal Council's recommendation of a no on fireworks, issued on Thursday, now has a number attached: a 40-point gap it will have to close in five weeks.