BERN - Switzerland votes on Sunday 27 September on the popular initiative Safeguard Swiss Neutrality. With seven days left, the figures published on 16 September are still the ones campaigners have to live with. No newer national survey has replaced them.
A Tamedia and 20 Minuten poll put opposition at 68 percent and support at 31 percent. The second SRG trend survey by gfs.bern, taken at the start of September, found 63 percent against and 34 percent in favour among people likely to vote. That no share was up 9 points on the previous wave. gfs.bern said 83 percent already had a firm intention, and that 73 percent of respondents expected the initiative to fail.
What a yes vote would change
The text would describe Swiss neutrality as perpetual and armed. Switzerland could not join a military or defence alliance, or cooperate with one, unless the country were under attack or an attack were imminent. It could not join a war between other states. Sanctions on warring states would be barred, except for United Nations sanctions and steps meant to stop those sanctions being evaded. The initiative also says Switzerland should use neutrality for mediation.
The Federal Council and parliament recommend a no. Ministers say the country can stay neutral, work with partners on security, and join sanctions, as it did when it largely followed European Union measures against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. The initiative came out of the Pro Suisse committee associated with Christoph Blocher and is backed in parliament by the Swiss People's Party.
A yes remains a majority only in SVP circles. The NZZ report of the gfs.bern survey put support there at 77 percent. In every other large party camp, the no side leads, from about 92 percent among Social Democrat sympathisers to about 77 percent among Liberal sympathisers.
Turnout and the second question
The same SRG survey put the intention to vote at 49 percent, a little above the long-run average of 47.4 percent, and 5 points higher than the first wave. Green Liberal and Green sympathisers looked the most mobilised. SVP sympathisers and voters with no party were less so. A late surge in the yes camp could still change the shape of the result. It would have to be large.
The food security initiative is on the same ballot and was also trailing by a wide margin in those surveys. Our 16 September poll report has the first reading of both numbers. The autumn session, which continues through the vote weekend, is covered in the opening-day dispatch.