ZURICH - UBS spent the last full week of June on a familiar round of briefings: full capital backing for foreign units, the executives said, would trap equity in Switzerland and push activity to other centres. Estimates of extra capital needs still floated in the tens of billions of dollars, depending on who did the counting.

FINMA has signalled it wants the strong version. The government must write the draft. Parliament is later. A referendum is possible after that. The bank is lobbying as if all four doors are open, because they are.

A summer without a law

No text will finish in 2025. That is the point of starting now. Our March report on capital talks is the same dispute in a colder month.